one-half AND one-third - 2024 Penn Bowl

Question

David Lewis wrote a paper disagreeing with an Adam Elga paper that argued for the smaller of these two answers to one problem. For 10 points each:

[10h] Give these two probabilities that are common answers to the original Sleeping Beauty Problem, in which somebody is woken up several times based on a coin flip and asked the probability of the coin landing heads.

ANSWER: one-half AND one-third [accept in either order; accept .5 and .333; accept halfers and thirders; prompt on answers with only one of the two probabilities]

[10e] Many arguments about the Sleeping Beauty problem rely on this theorem for conditional probability, which names the principal alternative to frequentist statistics.

ANSWER: Bayes' Theorem [or Bayes’ Law or Bayes’ Rule; accept Bayesian statistics]

[10m] This thinker described how Sleeping Beauty is awoken on one million days, rather than two, in his “extreme” version of the problem. This Swedish effective altruist was criticized for promoting longtermism in his book Superintelligence.

ANSWER: Nick Bostrom [or Niklas Boström]

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Summary


2024 Penn Bowl Playtest	10/12/2024	Y	2	15.00	100%	50%	0%
2024 Penn Bowl Berkeley	11/02/2024	N	2	25.00	100%	100%	50%
2024 Penn Bowl CWRU	11/02/2024	N	3	16.67	100%	33%	33%
2024 Penn Bowl Chicago	11/02/2024	N	7	21.43	86%	86%	43%
2024 Penn Bowl Florida	10/26/2024	N	2	20.00	100%	50%	50%
2024 Penn Bowl Harvard	10/26/2024	N	3	20.00	100%	67%	33%
2024 Penn Bowl Mainsite	11/02/2024	N	3	13.33	100%	0%	33%
2024 Penn Bowl Texas	11/02/2024	N	2	15.00	100%	0%	50%
2024 Penn Bowl UK	10/26/2024	N	5	16.00	100%	40%	20%
2024 Penn Bowl UNC	10/26/2024	N	3	13.33	100%	0%	33%

Data


TOAD	Khalil v Carbolic Shisha Ball Co	0	10	0	10
bruh	Ill-Advised Buzz	0	10	10	20