Question
David Lewis wrote a paper disagreeing with an Adam Elga paper that argued for the smaller of these two answers to one problem. For 10 points each:
[10h] Give these two probabilities that are common answers to the original Sleeping Beauty Problem, in which somebody is woken up several times based on a coin flip and asked the probability of the coin landing heads.
ANSWER: one-half AND one-third [accept in either order; accept .5 and .333; accept halfers and thirders; prompt on answers with only one of the two probabilities]
[10e] Many arguments about the Sleeping Beauty problem rely on this theorem for conditional probability, which names the principal alternative to frequentist statistics.
ANSWER: Bayes' Theorem [or Bayes’ Law or Bayes’ Rule; accept Bayesian statistics]
[10m] In this thinker’s “extreme” version of the problem, Sleeping Beauty is awoken on one million days, rather than two. This Swedish effective altruist promoted longtermism in his book Superintelligence.
ANSWER: Nick Bostrom [or Niklas Boström]
<Benjamin McAvoy-Bickford, Philosophy>
Summary
| 2024 Penn Bowl Berkeley | 11/02/2024 | Y | 2 | 25.00 | 100% | 100% | 50% |
| 2024 Penn Bowl CWRU | 11/02/2024 | Y | 3 | 16.67 | 100% | 33% | 33% |
| 2024 Penn Bowl Chicago | 11/02/2024 | Y | 7 | 21.43 | 86% | 86% | 43% |
| 2024 Penn Bowl Florida | 10/26/2024 | Y | 2 | 20.00 | 100% | 50% | 50% |
| 2024 Penn Bowl Harvard | 10/26/2024 | Y | 3 | 20.00 | 100% | 67% | 33% |
| 2024 Penn Bowl Mainsite | 11/02/2024 | Y | 3 | 13.33 | 100% | 0% | 33% |
| 2024 Penn Bowl Texas | 11/02/2024 | Y | 2 | 15.00 | 100% | 0% | 50% |
| 2024 Penn Bowl UK | 10/26/2024 | Y | 5 | 16.00 | 100% | 40% | 20% |
| 2024 Penn Bowl UNC | 10/26/2024 | Y | 3 | 13.33 | 100% | 0% | 33% |