Blanchard and Quah used a structural model named for this property to distinguish supply and demand disturbances. When using a model named for this property, the evolution of an endogenous variable due to exogenous shocks can be analyzed via impulse response functions. A method named for this property that models a vector of responses was popularized by Christopher Sims. In a popular method, a model named for this property corresponds to the parameter “p” in the triplet “p, d, q,” where “d” is the number of (*) differences taken and “q” is the number of error terms included. A model named for this property can be merged with a moving-average model and then “integrated” to get closer to stationarity. For 10 points, name this property of a time series model that predicts future values using past values, which is the “AR” in the acronyms ARIMA and ARCH. ■END■
ANSWER: autoregressive [or word forms such as autoregression; accept vector autoregression or structural vector autoregression; prompt on AR or VAR; prompt on ARMA or ARIMA; prompt on regression or regressive]
<Tim Morrison, Social Science>
= Average correct buzz position