two-thirds of the average of the guesses - 2025 ACF Winter

Question

Eliminating dominated strategies means that in the game of guessing this quantity, a variant of the “beauty contest,” all players should rationally pick zero. For 10 points each:

[10h] A French magazine originated the game where the players try to guess the closest to what quantity? In practice, game theoretic demonstrations of bounded rationality show many players will naively pick thirty-three.

ANSWER: two-thirds of the average of the guesses [accept synonyms such as two-thirds of the mean; reject partial answers]

[10e] This economist analogized the stock market to a “beauty contest” of judging what others think will be popular in the book The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.

ANSWER: John Maynard Keynes [accept Keynesian beauty contest]

[10m] Rosemarie Nagel found that players tend to choose zero in a version of the two-thirds of the average game played in this manner. Tit-for-tat and grim trigger are strategies for the prisoners’ dilemma played in this manner.

ANSWER: iterated [or repeated]

<Editors, Social Science>

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Summary


California	Main	Y	5	16.00	100%	40%	20%
Canada	Main	Y	6	13.33	83%	33%	17%
Florida	Main	Y	11	10.00	73%	27%	0%
Great Lakes	Main	Y	4	7.50	50%	25%	0%
Lower Mid-Atlantic	Main	Y	7	10.00	86%	14%	0%
Midwest	Main	Y	9	12.22	89%	22%	11%
North	Main	Y	10	9.00	50%	40%	0%
Northeast	Main	Y	5	18.00	100%	60%	20%
Overflow	Main	Y	4	12.50	75%	50%	0%
South Central	Main	Y	5	10.00	100%	0%	0%
Southeast	Main	Y	10	8.00	50%	30%	0%
UK	Main	Y	4	15.00	100%	50%	0%
Upper Mid-Atlantic	Main	Y	7	15.71	100%	57%	0%
2024 ARCADIA at UC Berkeley	04/19/2025	Y	4	10.00	50%	50%	0%

Data


Berkeley C	Berkeley B	10	10	10	30
Berkeley E	Berkeley D	0	10	0	10
UCSC	Berkeley F	0	10	0	10
Stanford B	Berkeley A	0	10	0	10
Stanford A	Stanford C	0	10	10	20
UCLA D	Claremont Scripps	0	10	10	20
UCLA B	UCLA A	10	10	10	30
UCLA C	Claremont Pitzer	0	10	0	10
UCSD Two Running Violet V Forms	UCI	0	10	0	10
UCSD Vices and Virtues	UCSB	0	10	0	10
USC	UCSD What Hath God Wrought	0	0	0	0
UF E	FIU	0	0	10	10
UF C	FSU	0	0	0	0
UCF B	UF B	0	10	0	10
UCF A	UF A	0	10	0	10
CWRU C	CWRU D	0	10	0	10
MSU A	OSU D	0	10	0	10
MSU B	Pitt C	0	0	10	10
OSU A	CWRU B	0	10	0	10
OSU C	OSU B	0	10	0	10
CWRU A	Pitt A	0	10	0	10
Pitt B	Kenyon B	0	10	0	10
Tennessee A	Clemson A	0	10	0	10
Virginia A	Liberty A	10	10	10	30
Liberty B	Liberty C	0	10	0	10
North Carolina A	North Carolina B	0	10	10	20
Tusculum	Roanoke	0	10	0	10
Virginia Tech A	South Carolina A	0	10	0	10
North Carolina C	South Carolina B	0	10	0	10
NC State	Tennessee B	0	0	0	0
Virginia B	Virginia Tech B	0	10	0	10
Carleton	Guelph A	0	10	0	10
McMaster C	McGill B	0	10	0	10
Toronto H	McGill C	0	10	10	20
Queen's A	McMaster A	0	10	10	20
Ottawa	Toronto Metropolitan	0	10	0	10
Toronto G	Toronto A	0	10	0	10
Toronto C	Toronto J	0	0	10	10
Toronto D	McGill A	0	0	0	0
Toronto I	Western Ontario	0	10	0	10
Toronto K	McMaster B	0	0	0	0
Queen's B	Waterloo	0	10	0	10
UMBC A	George Mason A	0	0	0	0
Maryland B	George Washington B	0	10	10	20
Maryland D	Georgetown B	0	0	10	10
George Mason B	Johns Hopkins A	0	0	0	0
Penn B	Johns Hopkins B	0	0	0	0
Johns Hopkins C	George Mason C	0	10	0	10
Maryland A	VCU A	0	10	0	10
Maryland C	NYU A	0	10	10	20
NYU B	George Washington A	0	0	10	10
Georgetown A	Penn A	0	10	0	10
Missouri A	WashU C	0	10	10	20
WashU D	SIUE	0	0	0	0
WashU A	Missouri B	0	10	10	20
WashU B	William Woods	0	10	0	10
Macalester A	Minnesota B	0	10	0	10
Macalester B	Wisconsin	0	10	0	10
Minnesota A	Minnesota C	0	10	0	10
Iowa State	Nebraska	0	10	0	10
Carleton	St. Thomas	0	10	0	10
Amherst A	Dartmouth	0	10	10	20
Brown B	BC A	0	0	0	0
BU	Brandeis Clemenceau	0	0	0	0
Brandeis Lloyd George	Brandeis Wilson	0	0	0	0
Cornell-UG	Brown A	0	0	0	0
MIT B	Brown C	0	10	0	10
Yale A	MIT A	0	10	10	20
Tufts A	Brandeis Orlando	0	0	10	10
Tufts B	Bowdoin A	0	10	0	10
Harvard	Williams	0	10	0	10
Columbia A	Rutgers C	10	10	10	30
Columbia C	Columbia B	0	10	0	10
Princeton A	Lehigh A	0	10	10	20
Rutgers B	Rowan A	0	10	0	10
Swarthmore A	Vassar A	0	10	10	20
British Columbia D	Alberta	0	10	10	20
British Columbia A	Simon Fraser	0	10	10	20
British Columbia B	Washington A	0	10	0	10
Washington B	British Columbia C	0	10	0	10
Arizona State A	Alberta B	0	10	10	20
Arizona State B	Texas A	0	10	0	10
McGill D	Iowa	0	10	10	20
Northwestern A	UTD B	0	10	10	20
Northwestern C	Northwestern B	0	10	0	10
Ohio	Texas B	0	10	0	10
UTD A	Tulsa	0	10	10	20
Cornell-DII	RIT A	0	0	0	0
Syracuse	ESF	0	0	0	0
RIT B	Binghamton A	0	10	10	20
Rochester	Binghamton B	0	10	10	20